"at the cost of other parts of the economy reacting and competing against you."
Rohit you're very smart and extremely over estimating the capability of most companies.
Most companies struggle with a proper data strategy (leaving AI / LLM aside), including in the SP500.
The door is wide open for the labs to eat alive most of the economy in that scenario.
Google, Meta and SpaceX will maybe compete as model providers or try gobbling up some business too but there is no world where non digital native first will be able to compete.
I think the labs are also dramatically overestimating how hard it is to replace, say, Geico or Caterpillar even though they're prob not very tech first.
I assume we're still in the scenario where Ant & OAI keep some lead (2 gen).
I think (but might be wrong) that Gwen and even Palantir to some extend will struggle to be competitive. So yes maybe we have Ant and OAI each backing a "winner" and each taking roughly 25% of the revenues of said industry. That is a lot of $.
I don’t think they’ll split things nearly that easily. Even the deploycos they’ve tried aren’t exactly printing compared to the rest. The real world is just stubbornly hard.
"at the cost of other parts of the economy reacting and competing against you."
Rohit you're very smart and extremely over estimating the capability of most companies.
Most companies struggle with a proper data strategy (leaving AI / LLM aside), including in the SP500.
The door is wide open for the labs to eat alive most of the economy in that scenario.
Google, Meta and SpaceX will maybe compete as model providers or try gobbling up some business too but there is no world where non digital native first will be able to compete.
I think the labs are also dramatically overestimating how hard it is to replace, say, Geico or Caterpillar even though they're prob not very tech first.
Valid point. But then, what is OAI and GE create a JV / partnership. Who is going to compete with that?
This too is valid. Maybe other conglomerates + Ant? Or + Palantir? Or Qwen? … This is the find new sources of revenue argument I made.
I assume we're still in the scenario where Ant & OAI keep some lead (2 gen).
I think (but might be wrong) that Gwen and even Palantir to some extend will struggle to be competitive. So yes maybe we have Ant and OAI each backing a "winner" and each taking roughly 25% of the revenues of said industry. That is a lot of $.
I don’t think they’ll split things nearly that easily. Even the deploycos they’ve tried aren’t exactly printing compared to the rest. The real world is just stubbornly hard.
Yes not expecting this scenario to play out like that, but I'm more bullish on them taking on the real world than you're!